....now say it 5 times real fast
The first week of the NCAA Tournament certainly lived up to the hype.
There are 16 teams still alive. While we can't pull anything concrete from a two-game sample size, let's take a quick numbers-based snapshot of each team left standing in the Sweet 16.
The Crimson Tide throttled Texas A&M-Corpus Christi and Maryland in the opening week, winning by 21 and 22 points, respectively.
Bama has been dominant in just about every facet of the game, scoring a tourney-best 84.5 points per game while shooting 38.9% from three.
A stiff challenge awaits against San Diego State, but there's a reason the Tide are 7.5-point favorites.
For the year, they sit fifth in adjusted defense, per KenPom.
That defense coupled with San Diego State's ability to rebound -- the Aztecs rank 34th nationally in rebound rate (53.6%) -- gives them a chance against Alabama.
The problem for San Diego State is that Alabama is better on D -- ranked third by KenPom -- and is much better offensively (18th vs. 70th). That, of course, is why the Aztecs are tied as the third-biggest 'dog of the Sweet 16.
It's not all because of Princeton being -- per our numbers -- the worst team left. The Bluejays are really, really good. KenPom slots them 12th overall, and despite being a six seed, Creighton was favored by 1.5 points in the second round versus third-seeded Baylor, a game the Bluejays won by nine.
Creighton has gotten to the Sweet 16 despite making just 31.8% from three in the first two rounds. They have hit 35.8% of their threes on the season, so they may be due for a slight uptick from deep, and they've made up for the cold outside shooting by going 39 fo 41 from the free-throw line.
Princeton has shot an ugly 27.6% from downtown, yet here they are as one of the last 16 teams left after upsetting Arizona and Missouri.
For the campaign, Princeton sits 64th in the country in three-point attempt rate (42.1%) but is only 193rd in three-point percentage (33.9%). What they've done through two games -- shoot lots of threes and make a blah percentage of them -- is how they play.
They'll likely need to make them at a better clip to knock off Creighton.
On the season, they rank in the top 35 on KenPom in both offense (30th) and defense (35th). In the dance, they are averaging 30.0 three-point tries per game, tops among teams that have played twice, and that gives them big-time upside every time out. They've made a killing on the glass, snagging 16.5 offensive rebounds per game, the most among teams in the Sweet 16, and they're averaging the fewest turnovers per game (8.0) of any team left.
FAU is plenty capable of winning against Tennessee on Thursday.
After surviving a scare against Louisiana in their opener, Tennessee bested a red-hot Duke squad by 13 points in an impressive second-round win. Tennessee held those two teams to an average of 53.5 points.
It's still fair to question whether the Vols' offense is good enough to win it all, but they're priced as a +120 favorite to win the East.
The betting market really likes the Spartans, because most metrics point to Kansas State being the slightly better team. KenPom has K State four spots in front of MSU. Our numbers have Michigan State nine spots behind. The Wildcats are one spot ahead on BartTorvik.
Yet, despite all that, it's Michigan State that is the slight favorite.
Oddsmakers might be banking on a bounceback from three as the Spartans have shot just 30 threes through two rounds, the second-fewest among teams still left, and have hit only 23.3% of those three-point tries. The Spartans aren't very good from deep -- sinking just 32.8% of threes for the year, which ranks 299th -- but they're not this bad.
Nowell was one of the stars of the first two rounds, averaging 22.0 points, 11.5 assists, 4.0 rebounds and 3.0 steals in victories over Montana State and Kentucky.
Nowell was a big key in the win over Kentucky, netting 27 points and dishing out 9 assists while going 10 of 11 from the free-throw line. Oh, and he played all 40 minutes.
On paper, the Cougars might be the nation's most complete team as they're the lone squad to rank in the top 10 in both offense and defense on KenPom.
Houston flexed its muscle in the second half against Auburn. Trailing by 10 at the break, Houston outscored the Tigers 50-23 in the second half to win going away.
That win also marked the first time star Marcus Sasser played a full game since injuring his groin. Sasser nailed five threes in the come-from-behind triumph and has some time to get healthier prior to Houston's Friday clash with Miami (FL) -- a game in which the Cougars are 7.5-point favorites.
Despite Miami garnering a five seed, our numbers had them closer to a historical 11 seed. Yes, 11 seed.
The Hurricanes benefitted from a friendly draw as nERD also wasn't a fan of Indiana, the highest-seeded squad in the Canes' initial four-team pod and the team Miami topped in the second round. Miami won that game due in large part to bullying the Hoosiers on the glass, snaring a staggering 20 offensive rebounds.
Miami -- whose adjusted defense ranks as the worst among the 16 remaining teams -- will need to be at its best to upset Houston.
This year's Musketeers are spearheaded by their offense. KenPom ranks Xavier seventh in the country in offense and has them as the third-best O left in the field. Xavier plays at a fast pace, too, ranking 33rd in adjusted tempo. They're just 63rd in defense.
Something the Musketeers have been elite at through two tourney games is getting to the line. Xavier is averaging 28.0 free-throw attempts per game in the dance, tops among the remaining teams.
Xavier's style of play is a big reason why their matchup with Texas has the highest over/under of the Sweet 16 (148.5 points).
All year long, Texas has done the majority of its work from inside the arc, ranking 23rd in the country in made twos per game (21.2). That held true through the first and second rounds as the Longhorns shot 57.8% from two-point range, the third-best mark among Sweet 16 teams.
Texas' offense should find success against Xavier's D, but this matchup might come down to how Texas' 10th-ranked defense handles the Musketeers' 7th-ranked offense.
The Razorbacks have attempted an average of only 13.0 three-pointers per game so far in the tournament, by far the fewest among the remaining 16 teams. This is who Arkansas is as they rank 347th nationally in three-point attempt rate.
The lack of three-point tries didn't prevent the Hogs from upsetting Kansas in the second round, but they're in for another tough one in the Sweet 16 against a UConn team that's favored by 3.5 points and is firing on all cylinders.
The Huskies rate out as a really good team pretty much across the board. Per KenPom, they're 3rd in offense and 14th in defense en route to ranking 4th overall. They were an easy team to love before the tourney.
But through two games, the thing that really stands out to me about UConn is how well they're shooting it as they've made 44.7% from the three-point line.
Sure, they're going to regress some in that department, but UConn ranks 64th nationally in three-point percentage (36.4%) for the year, so it's not like this is a total fluke. And when they do regress from three, they have plenty to fall back on -- like their 85.7% clip from the line or their 55.1% shooting on twos.
KenPom ranks the Zags as the nation's top offense. Gonzaga shined on that end in its first two games, scoring 83.0 points per game, the second-most among teams who will suit up this week.
But it's another story on D as Gonzaga is just 75th in adjusted defense, per KenPom, making them the third-worst defense left (ahead of only Miami and Princeton).
Still, Gonzaga ranks seventh overall on KenPom and is just a 2.5-point underdog to UCLA in what should be one of the premier matchups of the Sweet 16.
I could've easily chosen their 1.44 points per shot, which leads all tourney teams, as the stat to highlight. Or that they've committed just 25 fouls through two games, the third-fewest among teams still playing. Or that they're second in KenPom D.
But I love their assist-to-turnover ratio -- a mark of 2.56, which paces all big-dance teams by a good distance.
Among teams in the Sweet 16, UCLA is first in assists per game (20.5) and first in fewest turnovers per game (8.0). Fewer turnovers means more shots, and UCLA is making the most of its shots, hitting 52.3% from the field, second-best among teams remaining.
The first week of the NCAA Tournament certainly lived up to the hype.
There are 16 teams still alive. While we can't pull anything concrete from a two-game sample size, let's take a quick numbers-based snapshot of each team left standing in the Sweet 16.
Alabama Has Scored 84.5 Points Per Game
Alabama has been as good as advertised through two games.The Crimson Tide throttled Texas A&M-Corpus Christi and Maryland in the opening week, winning by 21 and 22 points, respectively.
Bama has been dominant in just about every facet of the game, scoring a tourney-best 84.5 points per game while shooting 38.9% from three.
A stiff challenge awaits against San Diego State, but there's a reason the Tide are 7.5-point favorites.
San Diego State Has Given Up 54.5 Points Per Game
The Aztecs hang their hat on defense, and that's been apparent in the tourney as they've held Charleston and Furman to an average of 54.5 points per game.For the year, they sit fifth in adjusted defense, per KenPom.
That defense coupled with San Diego State's ability to rebound -- the Aztecs rank 34th nationally in rebound rate (53.6%) -- gives them a chance against Alabama.
The problem for San Diego State is that Alabama is better on D -- ranked third by KenPom -- and is much better offensively (18th vs. 70th). That, of course, is why the Aztecs are tied as the third-biggest 'dog of the Sweet 16.
Creighton Is the Biggest Favorite in the Sweet 16
Creighton caught some luck with how their region has played out, and they're a 9.5-point favorite on Friday versus Princeton. That 9.5-point spread is the largest for any Sweet 16 game.It's not all because of Princeton being -- per our numbers -- the worst team left. The Bluejays are really, really good. KenPom slots them 12th overall, and despite being a six seed, Creighton was favored by 1.5 points in the second round versus third-seeded Baylor, a game the Bluejays won by nine.
Creighton has gotten to the Sweet 16 despite making just 31.8% from three in the first two rounds. They have hit 35.8% of their threes on the season, so they may be due for a slight uptick from deep, and they've made up for the cold outside shooting by going 39 fo 41 from the free-throw line.
Princeton Has Attempted 58 Threes
The Tigers are letting it fly from deep, taking 58 threes through two games. That's the second-most among any team that has played two games.Princeton has shot an ugly 27.6% from downtown, yet here they are as one of the last 16 teams left after upsetting Arizona and Missouri.
For the campaign, Princeton sits 64th in the country in three-point attempt rate (42.1%) but is only 193rd in three-point percentage (33.9%). What they've done through two games -- shoot lots of threes and make a blah percentage of them -- is how they play.
They'll likely need to make them at a better clip to knock off Creighton.
FAU Has Turned It Over 8.0 Times Per Game
Florida Atlantic checks a lot of boxes.On the season, they rank in the top 35 on KenPom in both offense (30th) and defense (35th). In the dance, they are averaging 30.0 three-point tries per game, tops among teams that have played twice, and that gives them big-time upside every time out. They've made a killing on the glass, snagging 16.5 offensive rebounds per game, the most among teams in the Sweet 16, and they're averaging the fewest turnovers per game (8.0) of any team left.
FAU is plenty capable of winning against Tennessee on Thursday.
Tennessee Ranks First in KenPom Defense
On the strength of KenPom's top-ranked defense, the Vols entered the NCAA Tournament as one of the most under-seeded teams. That defense has been lights out thus far.After surviving a scare against Louisiana in their opener, Tennessee bested a red-hot Duke squad by 13 points in an impressive second-round win. Tennessee held those two teams to an average of 53.5 points.
It's still fair to question whether the Vols' offense is good enough to win it all, but they're priced as a +120 favorite to win the East.
Michigan State Is a 1.5-Point Favorite Versus Kansas State
Despite Michigan State being a seven seed and Kansas State coming in as a three seed, it's Sparty who is a 1.5-point favorite for this game, which is the first Sweet 16 clash to tip on Thursday.The betting market really likes the Spartans, because most metrics point to Kansas State being the slightly better team. KenPom has K State four spots in front of MSU. Our numbers have Michigan State nine spots behind. The Wildcats are one spot ahead on BartTorvik.
Yet, despite all that, it's Michigan State that is the slight favorite.
Oddsmakers might be banking on a bounceback from three as the Spartans have shot just 30 threes through two rounds, the second-fewest among teams still left, and have hit only 23.3% of those three-point tries. The Spartans aren't very good from deep -- sinking just 32.8% of threes for the year, which ranks 299th -- but they're not this bad.
Markquis Nowell Has Put Up 22.0 Points and 11.5 Assists
Our numbers weren't super into the Wildcats before the tourney. Markquis Nowell doesn't care about our numbers.Nowell was one of the stars of the first two rounds, averaging 22.0 points, 11.5 assists, 4.0 rebounds and 3.0 steals in victories over Montana State and Kentucky.
Nowell was a big key in the win over Kentucky, netting 27 points and dishing out 9 assists while going 10 of 11 from the free-throw line. Oh, and he played all 40 minutes.
Houston Ranks in the Top 10 for O and D on KenPom
Two of the one seeds fell in the first week. The two who are still playing absolutely look like the best teams in the tourney. We already covered Alabama, and much of what was said there can also be applied to Houston.On paper, the Cougars might be the nation's most complete team as they're the lone squad to rank in the top 10 in both offense and defense on KenPom.
Houston flexed its muscle in the second half against Auburn. Trailing by 10 at the break, Houston outscored the Tigers 50-23 in the second half to win going away.
That win also marked the first time star Marcus Sasser played a full game since injuring his groin. Sasser nailed five threes in the come-from-behind triumph and has some time to get healthier prior to Houston's Friday clash with Miami (FL) -- a game in which the Cougars are 7.5-point favorites.
Miami Is the Second-Worst Team Left by KenPom
Miami was another team our numbers didn't like prior to the tourney, and they still rate out as one of the weaker teams left -- the second-worst team, in fact, per KenPom.Despite Miami garnering a five seed, our numbers had them closer to a historical 11 seed. Yes, 11 seed.
The Hurricanes benefitted from a friendly draw as nERD also wasn't a fan of Indiana, the highest-seeded squad in the Canes' initial four-team pod and the team Miami topped in the second round. Miami won that game due in large part to bullying the Hoosiers on the glass, snaring a staggering 20 offensive rebounds.
Miami -- whose adjusted defense ranks as the worst among the 16 remaining teams -- will need to be at its best to upset Houston.
Xavier Has Averaged 28.0 Free Throw Attempts
Xavier coach Sean Miller has a reputation for being a defensive guy. That's not how his current Xavier team is built.This year's Musketeers are spearheaded by their offense. KenPom ranks Xavier seventh in the country in offense and has them as the third-best O left in the field. Xavier plays at a fast pace, too, ranking 33rd in adjusted tempo. They're just 63rd in defense.
Something the Musketeers have been elite at through two tourney games is getting to the line. Xavier is averaging 28.0 free-throw attempts per game in the dance, tops among the remaining teams.
Xavier's style of play is a big reason why their matchup with Texas has the highest over/under of the Sweet 16 (148.5 points).
Texas Has Made 57.8% of Its Two-Pointers
Earlier, we touched on Houston being the only team in the top 10 on KenPom for both offense and defense. Texas -- and Connecticut -- are nearly there, with the Longhorns sitting 15th in offense and 10th in D.All year long, Texas has done the majority of its work from inside the arc, ranking 23rd in the country in made twos per game (21.2). That held true through the first and second rounds as the Longhorns shot 57.8% from two-point range, the third-best mark among Sweet 16 teams.
Texas' offense should find success against Xavier's D, but this matchup might come down to how Texas' 10th-ranked defense handles the Musketeers' 7th-ranked offense.
Arkansas Is Shooting 13.0 Threes Per Game
If you like old-school basketball, Arkansas is for you.The Razorbacks have attempted an average of only 13.0 three-pointers per game so far in the tournament, by far the fewest among the remaining 16 teams. This is who Arkansas is as they rank 347th nationally in three-point attempt rate.
The lack of three-point tries didn't prevent the Hogs from upsetting Kansas in the second round, but they're in for another tough one in the Sweet 16 against a UConn team that's favored by 3.5 points and is firing on all cylinders.
UConn Has Hit 44.7% of Its Threes
Man, UConn sure looked dang good in its first two games, thrashing Iona by 24 points and besting Saint Mary's by 15.The Huskies rate out as a really good team pretty much across the board. Per KenPom, they're 3rd in offense and 14th in defense en route to ranking 4th overall. They were an easy team to love before the tourney.
But through two games, the thing that really stands out to me about UConn is how well they're shooting it as they've made 44.7% from the three-point line.
Sure, they're going to regress some in that department, but UConn ranks 64th nationally in three-point percentage (36.4%) for the year, so it's not like this is a total fluke. And when they do regress from three, they have plenty to fall back on -- like their 85.7% clip from the line or their 55.1% shooting on twos.
Gonzaga Rates First in KenPom Offense
For the past couple of years, Gonzaga has (mostly) been elite at both ends of the floor. This season, that's not the case -- they're still elite on O but are just OK on defense.KenPom ranks the Zags as the nation's top offense. Gonzaga shined on that end in its first two games, scoring 83.0 points per game, the second-most among teams who will suit up this week.
But it's another story on D as Gonzaga is just 75th in adjusted defense, per KenPom, making them the third-worst defense left (ahead of only Miami and Princeton).
Still, Gonzaga ranks seventh overall on KenPom and is just a 2.5-point underdog to UCLA in what should be one of the premier matchups of the Sweet 16.
UCLA Has a 2.56 Assist-to-Turnover Ratio
It's hard to pick out one thing for UCLA; they're good at everything.I could've easily chosen their 1.44 points per shot, which leads all tourney teams, as the stat to highlight. Or that they've committed just 25 fouls through two games, the third-fewest among teams still playing. Or that they're second in KenPom D.
But I love their assist-to-turnover ratio -- a mark of 2.56, which paces all big-dance teams by a good distance.
Among teams in the Sweet 16, UCLA is first in assists per game (20.5) and first in fewest turnovers per game (8.0). Fewer turnovers means more shots, and UCLA is making the most of its shots, hitting 52.3% from the field, second-best among teams remaining.
